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Yesterday, Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election and would drop out of the race, a move that ignited plenty of conversation and a lot of onchain activity.
What's the scoop?
- Who Will Get the Nomination?: Polymarket shows Kamala Harris, who Biden endorsed, with an 83% chance of receiving the nomination, Michelle Obama at 9%.
- Market Activity: Election-related contracts on
Polymarket surpassed $28M in daily volume on Sunday. Over $500M is tied up in election contracts on the platform, with the market for the U.S. presidential election winner sized at $319M and the Democratic nominee market at over $212M. - The End of BODEN: BODEN began to plummet on Biden's announcement, dropping ~60% over the past 24 hours. Trump memecoins responded positively though, with TREMP and DJT netting 10.5% and 6.5% gains.
- KAMA gains: In the immediate aftermath of Biden’s decision before his official endorsement of VP Kamala Harris, a Gavin Newsom-themed token caught a quick 4x, before retracing it completely after the party rallied around Harris. As of this morning, the Kamala-themed token, KAMA, is up 56%, though it is still not the largest gainer. OBEMA, for Michelle Obama, stands in first place with a ~100% gain over the past 24 hours.
Bankless Take:
While crypto and the broader political establishment appears to be banking on a Trump win, Biden's dropout brings new uncertainty to the race. Overall, the reactions on Polymarket have become a new favorite among trusted media brands for gauging up-to-the-minute popular sentiment. Since these markets are highly speculative though, it’s still best to take them with a grain of salt.
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